On 26 June, EvaluatePharma released their “World Preview: 2013” report which forecasts a return to return to growth of the global biopharma market – in contrast to their prediction of unprecedented market contraction in the 2012 report. It seems that we might have weathered the worst of the patent cliff, now that loss of exclusivity has already hit some of the biggest blockbusters in the industry’s history. And EvaluatePharma predict a period of sustained market growth from 2014 through the forecast period to 2018.
Some highlights of the predictions in the report:
- Biggest selling product in 2018: Humira (AbbVie)
- Largest pharma company (in worldwide sales) in 2018: Novartis
- Leading generics company in 2018: Teva
- Top vaccine company in 2018: Sanofi
- Largest therapy area in 2018: onology
- Fastest growing class of drugs in the period to 2018: anticoagulants
While biopharma industry exposure to loss of excluvity will remain a factor in the forecast period, EvaluatePharma expect a less aggressive rate of sales erosion with biosimilars as compared with conventional generics, which may reduce the overall impact of patent loss on the market given the growing number of “biologic blockbusters”.
Link to EvaluatePharma to download the complimentary report: EvaluatePharma “Returning to Growth” Report 2013.